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Asheville UNCA , NC

Forecast Last Updated at Friday, August 29, 2014 at 7:33PM

Mostly Dry through Saturday

Overall, we expect mostly dry conditions across western NC / SW VA over the next couple of days with temperatures right around average. A disturbance passing through late in the weekend will bring more clouds and scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms to the area Sunday. Storms will continue to threaten on Labor Day Monday, although the coverage looks to be lower than Sunday.

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Friday

Hi: 89 Lo: 63

Mostly clear, but can't rule out a stray shower or t-storm; Light south wind but 5-15 mph above 3500'
Saturday

Hi: 87 Lo: 67

Partly to mostly cloudy; Can't rule out a late-day or nighttime shower or t-storm; Light south wind
Sunday

Hi: 86 Lo: 67

Mostly cloudy; Scattered showers and t-storms (mostly afternoon/evening); Light south wind
Monday

Hi: 87 Lo: 66

Partly cloudy with isolated afternoon & early evening showers and t-storms for Labor Day
Tuesday

Hi: 89 Lo: 66

Partly cloudy; Can't rule out an afternoon shower or t-storm

Further Out

Wednesday - Partly cloudy with widely scattered showers and t-storms; High in the upper 80s; Low in the mid 60s
Thursday - Partly sunny with widely scattered showers and t-storms; High in the upper 80s; Low in the mid 60s

Forecast Discussion

On the weather map, high pressure sits across over Northeastern US which, for the moment, is keeping a frontal boundary wedged up against the southern Appalachians. The front will push north into Virginia overnight and early Saturday, but it will be a slow progress. With the front moving north, a stray shower or thundershower can’t be ruled out this evening, mainly in the mountains, but even there it is hardly worth the mention. Overall it will be a pleasant evening.

On Saturday, moisture will begin increasing from the south as a disturbance begins to move north out of the Gulf of Mexico. There won’t be much in the way of a trigger for thunderstorms on Saturday, so despite the increasing moisture, we expect a mostly dry day across the area. The one exception may be SW NC where a few showers may creep in late in the day.

On Sunday, the Gulf disturbance will move up west of the Appalachians bringing more clouds and scattered showers and storms. At the moment, much of Sunday morning is looking dry with the better coverage of storms coming Sunday afternoon into early Sunday evening. If you have outdoor plans Sunday, keep an eye to the sky, but we are not expecting an all-day rain at this point. The forecast for Labor Day remains somewhat uncertain still as it is unclear how the Gulf disturbance will evolve. For now, we are thinking areas along / south of I-40 will see fewer storms than areas to the north. Overall, though, the coverage of storms looks lower than Sunday. So, again, have a plan B ready just in case for any outdoor Labor Day plans.

The theme next week will be warmer and summer-like as an upper level high tries to re-assert itself across the southern US. Temperatures look to go back above normal, especially the middle of next week, while thunderstorm coverage looks to be in the isolated to widely scattered category.

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