Forecast Last Updated at Thursday, December 5, 2013 at 4:38PM

Unseasonably Mild, then Wet

If you enjoyed the Spring-like temperatures today, you are in luck. There is more where that came from. Tomorrow will continue to be unseasonably mild with highs in the 60’s and low 70's. There may be a few showers around at times, but no widespread rain is expected through Friday afternoon. Now, if you are a lover of cold weather, you are also in luck. Winter’s chill returns this weekend. Rain will increase in coverage as well. And, with the cold air moving in, a few pockets of freezing rain will be possible overnight Saturday into early Sunday (mainly north and east of Black Mountain). Just plain ‘ole rain continues late Sunday through Monday. We get a chance to dry out towards the middle of next week.

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Thursday Hi: 72 Lo: 57 Cloudy tonight with areas of light rain & drizzle; South wind 5-10 mph (gusty up top)

Friday Hi: 70 Lo: 42 Mostly cloudy with patchy light rain & drizzle (especially daytime & evening); Mild; SW wind 10-15 mph (gusts to 30), becoming NW at night; Turning cooler overnight

Saturday Hi: 48 Lo: 36 AM showers, then generally cloudy; Much cooler; NW wind 5-15 mph; Rain returns at night (can't rule out pockets of freezing rain north and east of Black Mountain)

Sunday Hi: 40 Lo: 39 Cloudy with periods of rain (pockets of freezing rain possible north and east of Black Mountain)

Monday Hi: 57 Lo: 34 Cloudy with periods of rain continuing; Not quite as cold during the day

Further Out

Tuesday - Becoming mostly sunny; Turning colder again; High in the lower 40s; Low in the mid 20s
Wednesday - Mostly sunny; High in the lower 40s; Low in the mid 20s

Forecast Discussion

We are in the midst of a very active weather pattern across much of the eastern US thanks to an upper level trough sitting over the Rockies. That trough won’t move much through the weekend which will keep a moist flow coming off the Pacific ocean and right into the Southeastern US through early next week. Within that moist flow, a number of upper level disturbances will ride across the Appalachians bringing periods of light to moderate rain tonight through Monday. Daily details to follow…

A cold front will progress slowly through the TN Valley this evening, reach the NC / TN border late tonight, and then stall. This front will have a very sharp temperature gradient with it. To the east of the front across SW NC, temperatures will be unseasonably mild once again tomorrow (ie. in the 60’s and 70's) while just on the other side of the front, temperatures will quickly drop into the 30’s and 40’s. That colder air will eventually work into western NC over the weekend. More on that later. Rain-wise, the most widespread shower activity will be west of the front across central / eastern TN through tomorrow. However, with the front nearby, a few showers may develop and move NE across the NC mountains on Friday.

The front will get a kick east Friday night as an upper level disturbance moves through the Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic. This will allow much colder air to spill into western NC for the weekend. Temps in the 60’s will be replaced by 30’s and 40’s. The forecast gets a bit interesting at this point. Moisture will continue to stream into the area as the cold air moves in. This will allow for pockets of freezing rain to develop overnight Saturday into early Sunday morning. Right now, the best chance of seeing some icing will be north and east of Black Mountain and mainly along / close to the Blue Ridge. No significant icing is anticipated, but stay tuned as a colder trend could mean more icing potentially.

Eventually, any freezing rain will change to all rain later Sunday as milder air moves back in from the south. Periods of rain will continue into Monday before finally winding down Monday night. Colder and drier air moves in for the middle of next week as the weather pattern takes a breather.

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